August is closed, and it did not behave. Two things are usually true at once here: August is the quietest month of the year for buyer traffic (hottest, thinnest, peak hurricane watching) and yet August closings barely dip. Across 2020–2025 Cape Coral’s August closed 96.6% of what its July did, on average, on our own city MLS series. This year RPCRA’s Cape Coral Region series has August at 442 closings against July’s 511, which is 86.5%, a steeper step down than any of those six years. Prices held anyway: the median is $389,950, up 6.1% on last August. Fewer sales, firmer prices year over year, and a good deal more to choose from.
Where the market stands (latest published month: August)
| Metric | August 2026 | August 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $389,950 | $367,500 | +6.1% YoY |
| Closed sales | 442 | 441 | +0.2% YoY |
| New listings | 672 | 549 | +22.4% YoY |
| Pending sales | 465 | 446 | +4.3% YoY |
| Median days to contract | 42 | 61 | −31.1% YoY |
| Sold price per square foot | $224 | $219 | +2.3% YoY |
| Percent of original price received | 92.8% | 90.8% | +2.3% YoY |
| Active inventory | 2,162 | 2,722 | −20.6% YoY |
| Months of supply | 4.9 | 6.2 | −20.8% YoY |
| Median sale price (July, as now published) | $399,000 | — | we published $400,950 on August 15 |
| 30-year mortgage rate (Aug 27) | 6.66% | 6.56% | Freddie Mac |
| 30-year mortgage rate (Sep 10) | 6.76% | 6.35% | Freddie Mac |
| Next rate reading | September 17 | Freddie Mac, Thursdays noon ET | |
| August city figures (Florida Realtors) | not yet published | expected mid September, not in hand on September 16 | |
Every August row is RPCRA’s Cape Coral Region single-family series, published 9 September 2026 and drawn from SWFL MLS data through 4 September. That region is wider than the city, so it is not the same series as the city MLS counts this page used for June and July, and the two should not be mixed in one sentence. June’s city figures ($375,000 median, 578 closings, 2,631 active, 5.2 months of supply) stand as published; see the June report for the correction note. Nothing in this table is a forecast. The next section is the forecast, and it is now scored against what landed.
The median came in at $389,950, up 6.1% on last August and down 2.3% on July’s $399,000. Volume is where the month turned: 442 closings, level with last August’s 441, but down 13.5% on July. Supply went the other way. New listings ran 672, up 22.4% year over year, the biggest year-over-year move in the table, while active inventory fell to 2,162, down 20.6%. Months of supply sits at 4.9, just under the 5 to 7 band NAR calls balanced, against 6.2 a year ago. Sellers took 92.8% of their original asking price, up from 90.8%, in a median of 42 days to contract, down from 61. Year to date the region has closed 3,750 single-family sales against 3,519 by this point last year, on a year-to-date median of $385,000 against $375,000. Freddie Mac’s 30-year average finished August at 6.66% and has risen since, to 6.76% on September 10. The year-over-year cushion is gone: 6.76% sits above the 6.35% of the same week in 2025, and by the last week of August the average was already above its year-ago 6.56%.
How our August projection did
How it scored. The volume projection used Cape Coral’s own six-year record: August closings ran at 0.92, 0.88, 0.91, 1.11, 0.99 and 0.99 times the preceding July from 2020 to 2025, a mean of 0.966. Applied to July’s preliminary 537 that gave a central estimate near 525 and a range of 475 to 600. August’s actual ratio was 0.865, 442 against July’s 511, below every one of those six years. Read the comparison carefully: the 442 and the 511 are both RPCRA’s Cape Coral Region, while the 537 was our own city MLS pull, so they are not one series. The ratio is the part of the method that failed, and applied to our own July count it implies about 465 closings, roughly 60 below the number we published. The range did not save it. The median projection of about $363,000, withdrawn on August 15, would have landed near 7% under the $389,950 that arrived, so pulling it was the right call.
What we take from it. Two failures, and only one of them was the method’s fault. The median projection chained two seasonal steps and broke at the first, which this page said it might; it was withdrawn on August 15. The volume projection broke on the month itself. Supply arrived faster than demand absorbed it, new listings up 22.4% year over year against closings flat at +0.2%, and a seasonal ratio built on six ordinary Augusts cannot see that. The third risk this page listed, a storm in the eastern Gulf freezing closings county-wide, did not happen in August. Peak season runs to the end of October.
672 new listings, up 22.4% on last August, against 442 closings. Sellers who had carried a listing all summer, a median 42 days from listing to contract, and prices that held. Choice widened; the price did not break.
Fresh from the Cape: August 2026
Council rejected an 80% parks and rec fee increase
At the August 4 budget workshop on the proposed $1.451B FY27 budget, council rejected a staff option to raise parks and recreation fees by up to 80% after heavy turnout from youth-sports families. Cape American Baseball’s annual fee would have gone from about $2,000 to $24,000, and Cape Coral Soccer Association faced roughly $53,000 in new fees for some 3,000 players. Mayor John Gunter: “It’s not an option for me. Never was. That option is off the table.” The gap is being closed instead with $871,338 from extending vacant-position holds plus interest earnings.
Your millage: the number to watch is 5.1471
The city manager’s proposed rate is 5.1988 mills, the rolled-back rate, which rises only because citywide property valuations fell. Council’s working direction out of the August 4 workshop is to hold at the current 5.1471. The fire service assessment stays at 81% cost recovery. General Fund is $285M; big line items include a $400M North Water Reclamation Facility, $12.9M of repaving and $7.7M of drainage. Final adoption is in September. You can check the effect on your own parcel at capecoral.gov/checkbook.
A judge just ordered Amendment 3 rewritten
On August 4 a circuit judge ruled the ballot title and summary for Amendment 3 (the homestead property-tax measure) misleading and defective, and ordered the Attorney General to rewrite it by August 14. The amendment stays on the November ballot; only the wording changes. If it passes it would raise the homestead exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028. Cape Coral projects the hit to city revenue at roughly $28.6M in FY28 and $46.6M a year from FY29, close to 30% of annual ad valorem revenue. If you are buying here, this is the single biggest open question about what your future tax bill and city services look like.
School’s back August 11
Lee County schools start the 2026–27 year on Tuesday, August 11: the practical start of the local calendar, and the week traffic on Del Prado and Santa Barbara goes back to normal. The school board approved a $3.1B tentative budget on August 4.
On the calendar
August 6: Realtor.com’s metro data update and Freddie Mac’s weekly rate. August 11: schools go back. August 17: Florida Realtors publishes July’s market detail, the first hard read on Cape Coral’s July. August 18: the Lee County primary, including Cape Coral city council races. August 22: the South Cape BaconFest Pub Crawl, 7 to 11pm in the entertainment district, 21+, $25 advance / $30 day-of / $20 designated driver before fees. August 29: the PRIDE in Paradise tropical luau at The Hideaway Waterfront Resort, noon to 6pm, $30. Farmers markets keep running year-round: Saturdays 8am–1pm at Club Square, Sundays 10am–2pm in the north Cape. The next Bike Night is October 10; there is no summer edition.
Hurricane season: quiet, and not yet updated
As of August 5 there are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Two named storms have formed season to date against a 1991–2020 average of three by August 3, with Saharan dust and El Niño wind shear both suppressing development. NOAA revises its seasonal outlook in early August and had not yet published the update when this page was written, so the operative forecast is still May’s: eight to fourteen named storms, three to six hurricanes, one to three majors, with a 55% chance of a below-normal season. Peak is mid-September through October, and a quiet August has never prevented a damaging September.
Still building
The Bimini East $500M concept plan cleared its July 29 council workshop and a developer’s agreement is being drafted, with no date set for its return. Cape Coral Parkway East is widening to six lanes, targeted for a fall 2026 finish as of the city’s last public update in May. The Yacht Club rebuild is in Phase 2 scoping (fuel system, utilities, beach amenities) with no funding source identified and no reopening date announced. Seven Islands civil construction was targeted by the developer for fall, a date set back in January and not refreshed since.
What it means if you’re buying or selling
August rewarded buyers willing to be uncomfortable, and the actuals say so. 672 new listings came to market, up 22.4% on last August, while 442 closed. The active pool is still 20.6% smaller than a year ago, so this is not a glut. Sellers got 92.8% of their original asking price, up from 90.8%, so nobody was giving houses away. If you are selling into September, price against August’s $389,950 rather than July’s $399,000: those are two different months and the gap is 2.3%. And before anyone writes an offer, read the flood zone and insurance guide: a serious storm in the eastern Gulf rewrites the second half of the year.
Want this read against a specific street, canal or price band? That’s a phone call, not a blog post: get in touch or start with the Coastal Home Finder.
Market figures are compiled from the Florida Gulf Coast MLS, Royal Palm Coast Realtor Association and Florida Realtors monthly reports, Realtor.com metro data via FRED, Zillow, and Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey. Sources disagree on inventory counts and geography, city versus county versus metro, so we label which is which rather than blending them. Projections are labelled as projections, state their method, and are replaced with actuals when the data lands. Local items are summarised from the Cape Coral Breeze, WINK News, Fox 4, Gulfshore Business, NOAA and the City of Cape Coral. Details can change after publication.
